International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University Uehiro Disaster Risk Reduction Research Division

Our study focuses on reducing underestimates in the prediction of earthquake magnitude and ground motion. The source-fault models used in simulations of earthquake ground motion and tsunami forecasts are crucial, as they influence the damage predictions derived from these results, as well as the associated disaster prevention policies and measures. In practice, this provides fundamental information on the earthquakes that should be anticipated, and it is essential to reduce underestimation and improve the clarity of the information provided. We are conducting studies to propose methods for processing simulation results that contain multiple possibilities and a range of values, by considering uncertainties and variability in the configuration of the source fault model. We aim to contribute to future disaster prevention and the enhancement of disaster resilience by reducing the underestimation of potential earthquakes.